The Crimean Crisis by Daniel Dilworth Mar11

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The Crimean Crisis by Daniel Dilworth

So, everyone is debating the merits of the Russian invasion of the Crimea. Or, to be more precise, complaining about Putin and his evil soldiers taking over those poor Crimeans and invading the Ukraine. The EU, in typical fashion, does a lot of shouting and reluctantly concludes that it must meet again over it. There are the threats of expelling Russia from the G8.

But there is an issue with this – two really, to be honest. The first one relates to the age old decree of “self-determination,” a policy so supported by America over the years. Sometimes the argument is made that a vote should take place before any such moves. While yes, such a move is seen as ideal, the Ukraine is at crisis-point. A large minority feels aggrieved over the exile of Yanukovich, particularly in the Crimea, which feels he was ousted in a coup d’etat. These feelings go deeper, though. These are people who feel alien within their country, like the Catholics in Northern Ireland during the Troubles. There are ethnic Russians who feel discriminated against ever since the break-up of the Soviet Union. This is an issue the men (and Catherine Ashton) in Europe have neglected in all their Putin-bashing.

The second main issue relates to the sanctions. This sounds very noble coming from a past-Noble Peace Prize winner, but can it be effective? Short answer no, long answer… also no. You see, Russia doesn’t depend on us to survive. It is a self-sufficient nation, capable of supplying its own wheat, meat, fruit and vegetables… and oil. Let’s us remember the vast resources of oil Russia has – and gas too. In fact, it is one of the biggest exporters of these resources to Europe. It’s all fine and dandy saying Europe will overcome, but at what price? Sure, we can import more oil from the Gulf countries and the States, but it will cost a lot more money. But Gazprom, the Russian gas company, is one of the biggest players in the gas market in Europe. Forget your Celtic Sea gas; the fact remains most of the gas we use in Ireland is not from our own wells. It’s from somewhere near the Caspian. Oil and gas prices shall rocket due to any embargoes, and Putin will be laughing at Brussels… probably not for the first time.

Will some big war happen because of this? Are we seeing the start of the Second Crimean War/ WWIII? Perhaps the former, but even at that the Ukraine will go with their tails between their legs, unless they guarantee increased autonomy for this troubled region. But now it is probably too little too late.